Sunday, October 16, 2011

6 Utah Congressional Map Comparison

I am hoping this would be helpful comparing 6 maps being discussed. I would hope it can be passed out in the public caucus meeting. The data comes from the public redistricting software on the public side. It is population numbers.

http://www.fredcox4utah.com/SB3002-6%20options.pdf


The chart is designed for 11x17 black and white.

The Garber/King map numbers are confusing because they are calling the east part of Salt Lake County district 3, the south part of the state including Alpine and much of Utah county 4, and the west part of Salt Lake Valley district 2. That is also for the 12th Substitute map online. I have not been able to confirm that it has been "corrected" as not all the bill information for Substitute 12 is online.

The population data is generated by the public software and I have compiled the 6 maps into one file. The totals are just text.

For those complaining about not having enough people in the 2nd congressional district from Davis County (to give them a voice), this gives a comparison, again taking to account 2 and 4 are swapped for the Garber King map. The spreadsheet shows the files actual numbering. It would be easier to compare if the district numbers for Garber King map were changed.

Davis County 2nd district
SB 3002 57,432
Sumsion 15 57,432
Sumsion 16 57,432
McAdamsCox 69,623
FroererAdams 109,686

GarberKing None if you compare apples to apples.
21,108 goes to the west part of Salt Lake Valley district.

The maps are at:
http://www.redistrictutah.com/category/maps/us-congress

For a list of Congressional maps I have been involved in see:
http://fredcox4utah.blogspot.com/2011/10/utah-redistricting-congress.html

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Utah Redistricting - Congress

update: See http://elections.utah.gov/map/district-maps

I have been asked what congressional map proposals do I have out there and why?

I had one of the 1st maps submitted to the redistricting committee with the new software, and in fact it was a map I started last November and December in 2010. It was presented in a public hearing in June and selected as one of the top 6 maps by the committee in September.

The stated motive for drawing the "Hat and 3 Stripes" map was to have equal US Census population and keep as many counties and cities together as possible. (Not splitting them).

The map was NOT designed to balance republican or democrat ratios. The redistricting map software doesn't provide that information, nor was that my goal. I didn't want a map to decide who won the elections. That should be up to the voters.

Versions of that map is on the Redistricting website, include:

http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/u-s-congressional-6-finalists/congress-rep-cox-%E2%80%9Cplan-e%E2%80%9D-hat-and-3-stripes

On Tuesday, October 4th, when it became obvious that we didn't have agreement on a map, I "pulled a bill file" for this map which is:

http://le.utah.gov/~2011S3/bills/sbillint/sb3002s06.pdf
with the map at:
http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/sb3002s06

I have two public variations of this "hat and 3 stripes" map at:

One that splits Utah County as all the maps that didn't had disappeared off the radar
http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-repcox-hat-and-3-stripes-modified

One that puts more of Southern Utah together.
http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-cox-congressional-map-z

The end of September, when the redistricting committee picked a map, I created this minor modification after working with some from Utah County.

http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-cox-version-of-sumsion_06-modified-a


After the last redistricting meeting where it appeared that the map the senate passed may be the only option the senate would agree to, which is based on the Sumsion 6 modified A

I pulled this map as a bill file:

http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/sb3002s11

The bill is at:

http://le.utah.gov/~2011S3/bills/sbillint/sb3002s11.pdf


Speaker Lockhart has proposed a modification of the Sumsion 6 modified A. This has some of the same modifications I made of the senate passed map for her proposed map.

http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-cox-lockhart-5-modified


I recently found this map submitted by the public that I was impressed with. It only divided one county of the state.

http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-plaizier-fair-4-utah

My modifications of it to reduce the number of cities split:
http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-cox-fair-4-utah-leonard-s-plazier-rep-cox-modified

At this time, the two most likely maps, If I do nothing are:
http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/us-congress/sumsion_15
and
http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-rep-sumsion-sumsion_16


I am currently working on a map with Sen. Ben McAdams.

http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/congress-senator-mcadams-and-rep-cox-modification-of-hat-and-3-stripes

I hope to have one that is the best ready for release by Oct. 14th and available for public hearing on Oct. 17th if the map is very different from one that has had a public hearing.

For some real facts on Utah's Redistricting from our Lt. Governor
http://utahpulse.com/bookmark/16045628-Redistricting-A-Few-Facts-A-Few-Opinions-

Monday, October 3, 2011

Redistricting has Been Kind to Democrats...So Far

Redistricting has Been Kind to Democrats...So Far

Copy of now archived article from 9/16/11 at:
http://www.utahpolicy.com/featured_article/redistricting-has-been-kind-democratsso-far

By Bob Bernick, UtahPolicy.com Contributing Editor

If you had shown me last spring the redistricting maps of the Utah House and Senate unanimously adopted this week by the Legislature’s Redistricting Committee, I would have been more than a little surprised.

Why?

Because the majority Republicans did not treat the minority Democrats too badly.

In fact, depending on possible election outcomes in 2012 (assuming these maps are ultimately approved by the Legislature in an early October special session), Democrats could come out OK in the redistricting process.

And that is exactly why I’m thinking these maps won’t be the final boundaries for the 75-member House and 29-member Senate for the next 10 years.

The Senate map has a better chance of passage than does the House map, I admit.

That’s because the Senate redistricting combines no GOP incumbent senators.

Yes, it’s ugly boundaries for Tooele County.

But instead of the having the county split into four Senate districts, as is now the case, it would be split into two.

Still, it’s unlikely a Tooele candidate could win a Senate seat – the county has about one-third of the population base for both of the proposed districts, thus making it unlikely a county politician could win or hold one of the new seats.

And, yes, the map is draw to protect Senate Majority Assistant Whip Pete Knudson, R-Brigham City. But the map is also drawn to protect other GOP incumbents, as well.

Two Democrats are drawn into the same district – Senate Minority Leader Ross Romero, D-Salt Lake, and former minority leader Pat Jones, D-Holladay.

But, to be fair, the Salt Lake City/east side Salt Lake County Senate seats held by Democrats didn’t grow in population over the last 10 years as fast as other parts of the county.

So it is only right that two Democrats be put together.

And Romero is running for Salt Lake County mayor next year, so Democrats won’t see a battle of two incumbents.

The House is a very different matter.

Republicans on the Redistricting Committee – which includes Speaker Becky Lockhart, R-Provo – approved a plan that put 10 incumbents into five combined districts.

Three Democrats and seven Republicans would face an incumbent if they run in 2012 and the map stands.

Two Democrats are combined: House Minority Leader David Litvack and newcomer Brian Doughty, both D-Salt Lake.

Rep. Janice Fisher, a Democrat, and Rep. Fred Cox, a Republican, both from West Valley City, are combined.

And in the most controversial suggestion, six GOP incumbents are combined: Rep. Brad Galvez, R-West Haven, and Rep. Jeremy Peterson, R-Ogden; Reps. Todd Kiser and LaVar Christensen, both R-Sandy; and Reps. Stephen Sandstrom, R-Orem, and Chris Herrod, R-Provo.

Now, there are 58 House Republicans. It’s tough to draw a map with such a super-majority that wouldn’t combine at least a few GOP incumbents.

It’s especially difficult if you compartmentalize various geographic areas of the state and say House districts won’t be allowed to significantly encroach into surrounding areas.

For example, since the numbers so perfectly match up, Salt Lake County was basically kept whole, as was Utah County. Northern Utah fit well together, so did Washington and Iron counties.

But politically speaking, Utah County is really a tough sell as drawn today.

First off, the county is all Republican – no Democratic House members at all. So you can’t combine two Democrats in Utah County.

Secondly, while Lockhart may have voted for the map in committee, her caucus stand may be different. How does she tell her Utah County colleagues – most if not all of whom supported her in the speaker’s race where she won by one vote – that two arch-conservatives must be combined when, because of growth in parts of the county, there will be three open House seats created?

Why can’t the Utah County map be drawn that would give all incumbents their own districts and have only two open new seats?

Trust me, Rep. Ken Sumsion, R-American Fork, the House chair of the committee, has tried time and again to draw a Utah County map that makes some sense and doesn’t combine any incumbents.

Sumsion said that in the map approved last week “one of my best friends” in the House is combined with “another friend” – and Sumsion is not happy about it at all.

But that’s just the way the numbers and population shifts make sense, he said.

Members of the 58-strong House GOP caucus may define “makes sense” very differently.

Still, when there is political blood in the water, it can become every man for himself.

And to draw lines that protect Sandstrom and Herrod could mean that other incumbents end up in a district with mostly new constituents – and the loss of the geographic power base that put them in office.

What good does it do Utah County incumbent House members to save Sandstrom and/or Herrod if they, in turn, are challenged by a LDS bishop, city mayor or councilman or business leader from their new area who can knock them out in the GOP county convention or primary?

Wheels within wheels, hard choices all around.

You can see the new Senate and House redistricting maps at: www.redistrictutah.com.

Take a look. You may not know where your current incumbent lives (hey, you may not know who your current incumbent is).

But take a bird’s eye view. Do the new maps make sense to you?

If so – and they make sense to me – you should let your representative and senator know that you like what your see (or don’t).

Personally, I think the majority Republicans have done pretty well by the minority Democrats – given the population shifts and reality of the numbers.

Now we’ll see if the House and Senate GOP caucuses will go along with the maps proposed by the Redistricting Committee (this comment assumes that significant boundary changes aren’t made before the caucuses get a shot at them).

Remember, GOP House and Senate leaders want the redistricting maps to receive overwhelming support in the Legislature come October.

And if they have to draw more lines – and hurt some more Democrats -- to get that, well, don’t be surprised by that outcome, either.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

2012 Utah State House Districts Salt Lake County Area

"Somewhat similarly, Cox, who is not on the committee but attended its meeting, said he was not upset at being drawn into the same district as incumbent Fisher. He said he would rather be put into a district that makes sense geographically than be gerrymandered into a weirdly shaped area that might give him a better chance at re-election."

The article can be found at:
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/52568245-90/map-county-lake-salt.html.csp

See also:
http://utahpolicy.com/featured_article/redistricting-proposed-house-map-combines-10-incumbents

A copy of the Salt Lake County Base Map for 2012 Utah State House Districts voted on 12 Sep 2011 by the Redistricting Committee. I would be in District 29 on this map. (The numbering may or may not be updated).
http://www.fredcox4utah.com/slco12Sep11houseMap.pdf

See also:
http://www.redistrictutah.com/

A copy of the Base Map for 2012 Utah State Senate Districts voted on 12 Sep 2011 by the Redistricting Committee.
http://www.redistrictutah.com/maps/senate-redistricting-committee-adopted-base-map-91211

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Boatlifters: The unknown story of 9/11

Much has been written and said about September 11, 2001, on the occasion of its 10th anniversary, but one story much less known is the one about the band of boats that came together to rescue nearly 500,000 New Yorkers from the World Trade Center site on the day the towers collapsed.

http://blogs.reuters.com/katharine-herrup/2011/09/09/boatlifters-the-unknown-story-of-911/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDOrzF7B2Kg&feature=share



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